The Unsuccessful Attempt to Stage UN Climate Summit Appears Like a Mess – Yet It Could Actually Be the Best Result Achievable

Ouch. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a conference hindered from the top if his government managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.