Pitches, Bowling Tools and Back-ups – Where the Iconic Series Will Be Won and Lost

Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|