How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.

Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."

• Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
• Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president gained from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.

Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a resolution.

Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.

Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.

The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.

The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russia has been failed to capture.

He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.