Escalating Rhetorical Battle Involving Ethiopia and Eritrea Raises Fears of Military Confrontation

Mounting apprehensions are present about the potential of warfare involving East African countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as hostile language has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for access to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has triggered a intense rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in the previous year that his government's sea access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Ties between the two countries have often been tense. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a military clash erupted in which numerous people lost their lives.

Current Statements from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed control of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and hinted at the wish to capture it through military means.

Recently, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing access to the sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Reaction to the Threats

Amid ongoing threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been confined to concise remarks on X from Communications Head the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea describing it as "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a approach of claiming back lost territory.

Government spokespeople cautioned on 16 September that attempts to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Ground

So far, there are little evidence of major military movements in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in the country, government media has displayed training completions of numerous trainees at various military training camps.

The leader of human resources department of the armed forces, General Hachalu, recently said in an interview that the military was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Past Background of the Dispute

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by Italian rulers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British administration before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor ended this arrangement and Eritrea became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year armed struggle occurred, concluding with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then endorsed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the exact location of their common border, causing conflict in 1998.

Even though this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations stayed at odds.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The two signed a announcement that the war was finished – a move that won the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The both administrations were then allies in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 armed struggle in the northern region.

However ties have later worsened again.